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(29-34-2 against the spread in 2022)
NEW YORK GIANTS (+7) over Philadelphia Eagles
The 7-4-1 Giants are winless in their previous three games, and are an underdog at home for the second straight game. Last week, New York covered as a 1.5-point dog at home while playing to a tie with Washington. Now, the G-Men host an 11-1 Eagles team that’s won three straight. Philadelphia’s only loss is to Washington, so I always expect these NFC East games to be tight. Giants might not win, but they cover again at home.
DENVER BRONCOS (+9.5) over Kansas City Chiefs
Speaking of taking the points in a divisional matchup, I’m jumping all over the 3-9 Broncos as a heavy home underdog against the 9-3 Chiefs. Nobody believes in Russell Wilson. But I believe in a Denver defense that ranks second in the NFL, allowing just 17 points per game. The Broncos have only been beaten by more than nine points on one occasion this season. I’m betting on Denver to keep it close and cover at Mile High.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+3.5) over San Francisco 49ers
Tom Brady is fresh off another fourth-quarter comeback win, and the 6-6 Buccaneers are in first place in the NFC South. They travel to San Francisco to take on rookie Brock Purdy and the 8-4 Niners, who are in first place in the NFC West. Purdy replaced an injured Jimmy Garoppolo last week, and helped San Fran to its fifth straight win. Given Purdy’s inexperience, this spread confuses me. In a battle of Brady vs Purdy, I’m taking an underdog Brady every day of the week. Bucs win on the road.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (-3.5) over Los Angeles Chargers
With an over-under of 52.5, this game comes down to who you trust more in a shootout, Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert. One stat gives me my answer: Sacks. Tagovailoa has been sacked only 15 times this season, which is the fewest for quarterbacks who’ve played 10 games or more. Herbert has been sacked 26 times, including 14 times in the last three games. This could be the “Bradley Chubb game” for Miami. The 8-4 Dolphins beat the 6-6 Chargers by a touchdown in LA.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-1.5) over Arizona Cardinals
The 6-6 Patriots and 4-8 Cardinals are both on the outside looking in at the NFL playoffs. They’ve each lost two straight. It’s basically a pick-em on Monday night in Arizona. I’m picking the Pats to force Kyler Murray into making a few bad decisions. This also isn’t a bad matchup for a struggling Patriots offense to find itself, as the Cardinals have the league’s second-worst defense, allowing 26.8 points per game. Right now, Bill Belichick’s back is against the wall. I won’t bet against that. Patriots win and cover on the road.
Follow Danny on instagram @DannyPicard.
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